American National Election Studies, Cumulative Data File, 1948-2004

Data Archive > U.S. Surveys > General Population > National > National Election Studies > Analysis


VCF0700

Who do you think will be elected President in November?
  1) Democratic candidate
  2) Republican candidate
  7) Other candidate
  8) DK; depends
  9) DK; NA; no Pre IW

Category Frequency Percentage Cumulative Percentage Z-Score
Democratic candidate 9700 37.2% 37.2% -.64
Republican candidate 12948 49.7% 86.9% -.19
Other candidate 227 .9% 87.8% 2.06
DK; depends 2926 11.2% 99% 2.51
DK; NA; no Pre IW 251 1% 100% 2.96

Variable Comparisons


Gender (I-GENDER)

Male Female TOTAL
Democratic candidate 38.5%
4419
36.5%
5281
37.4%
9700
Republican candidate 51.7%
5940
48.4%
7008
49.9%
12948
Other candidate 1.0%
113
0.8%
114
0.9%
227
DK; depends 8.3%
948
13.7%
1978
11.3%
2926
DK; NA; no Pre IW 0.5%
61
0.6%
90
0.6%
151
TOTAL 100.0%
11481
100.0%
14471

25952


Race (I-RACE)

White Black Asian Native American Hispanic Other TOTAL
Democratic candidate 34.8%
7420
51.8%
1482
46.2%
98
39.3%
205
48.9%
414
47.2%
25
37.3%
9644
Republican candidate 53.0%
11313
30.2%
865
45.3%
96
50.3%
262
40.9%
346
32.1%
17
49.9%
12899
Other candidate 0.9%
185
0.6%
18
0.0%
0
1.3%
7
1.5%
13
3.8%
2
0.9%
225
DK; depends 10.8%
2303
16.4%
470
7.1%
15
9.0%
47
8.1%
69
17.0%
9
11.3%
2913
DK; NA; no Pre IW 0.5%
114
0.9%
26
1.4%
3
0.0%
0
0.6%
5
0.0%
0
0.6%
148
TOTAL 100.0%
21335
100.0%
2861
100.0%
212
100.0%
521
100.0%
847
100.0%
53

25829


Age (I-AGE)

17-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older TOTAL
Democratic candidate 37.2%
932
37.0%
2100
38.6%
2082
38.1%
1629
37.0%
1329
36.3%
1594
37.4%
9666
Republican candidate 53.1%
1330
52.6%
2985
50.8%
2737
49.5%
2116
48.8%
1752
44.8%
1971
49.9%
12891
Other candidate 0.9%
22
0.8%
45
0.7%
40
1.1%
48
0.8%
28
1.0%
42
0.9%
225
DK; depends 8.5%
214
9.1%
515
9.2%
496
10.7%
458
12.7%
456
17.3%
759
11.2%
2898
DK; NA; no Pre IW 0.2%
5
0.5%
29
0.6%
32
0.7%
28
0.6%
23
0.7%
31
0.6%
148
TOTAL 100.0%
2503
100.0%
5674
100.0%
5387
100.0%
4279
100.0%
3588
100.0%
4397

25828


Education (I-EDUC)

Grade school or less (0-8 grades) High school (12 grades or fewer) Some college (13 grades or more but no degree) College or advanced degree TOTAL
Democratic candidate 35.0%
1505
37.6%
4513
37.7%
1896
38.8%
1720
37.4%
9634
Republican candidate 41.4%
1780
50.0%
6012
54.4%
2737
52.9%
2342
49.9%
12871
Other candidate 1.2%
53
0.8%
101
0.9%
44
0.6%
27
0.9%
225
DK; depends 21.5%
925
11.0%
1318
6.6%
334
7.2%
319
11.2%
2896
DK; NA; no Pre IW 0.9%
40
0.6%
70
0.4%
19
0.5%
20
0.6%
149
TOTAL 100.0%
4303
100.0%
12014
100.0%
5030
100.0%
4428

25775


Religion (I-RELIGION)

Protestant Catholic Jewish Other and none (also includes don't know preference) TOTAL
Democratic candidate 34.8%
5841
41.3%
2500
45.7%
295
43.8%
981
37.4%
9617
Republican candidate 51.8%
8681
48.0%
2908
42.5%
274
44.2%
990
50.0%
12853
Other candidate 0.9%
145
0.9%
52
0.9%
6
0.9%
20
0.9%
223
DK; depends 11.9%
1999
9.3%
566
10.2%
66
10.7%
240
11.2%
2871
DK; NA; no Pre IW 0.6%
105
0.5%
32
0.6%
4
0.4%
8
0.6%
149
TOTAL 100.0%
16771
100.0%
6058
100.0%
645
100.0%
2239

25713


Worship attendance (I-ATTEND)

Every week Almost every week (no cases in 1970) Once or twice a month A few times a year Never No religious preference (1970-1988) TOTAL
Democratic candidate 34.4%
1581
36.4%
753
40.4%
987
33.5%
1441
45.9%
1717
24.5%
182
37.2%
6661
Republican candidate 53.4%
2454
53.1%
1099
49.7%
1214
57.0%
2452
43.6%
1633
60.8%
451
52.0%
9303
Other candidate 1.0%
44
0.8%
17
0.6%
15
0.3%
15
1.1%
42
0.1%
1
0.7%
134
DK; depends 10.8%
497
9.6%
198
9.0%
221
8.7%
374
9.1%
340
14.4%
107
9.7%
1737
DK; NA; no Pre IW 0.5%
23
0.2%
4
0.2%
5
0.4%
19
0.3%
12
0.1%
1
0.4%
64
TOTAL 100.0%
4599
100.0%
2071
100.0%
2442
100.0%
4301
100.0%
3744
100.0%
742

17899

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