American National Election Studies, Cumulative Data File, 1948-2004

Data Archive > U.S. Surveys > General Population > National > National Election Studies > Analysis


VCF0714

(IF R PREDICTS A WINNER IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) Do you think it [the presidential race] will be a close race or will [R's predicted winning candidate] win by quite a bit? (IF R REPLIES "DK" WHO WILL WIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) Do you think the presidential race will be close or will one candidate win by quite a bit?
  0) NA; no Pre IW; respondent replies DK who will win (1952-1976); respondent's prediction NA
  1) Will win by quite a bit
  2) Close race
  9) DK; pro-con; depends; etc.

Category Frequency Percentage Cumulative Percentage Z-Score
NA; no Pre IW; respondent replies DK who will win (1952-1976); respondent's prediction NA 632 2.4% 2.4% -1.04
Will win by quite a bit 7048 27.1% 29.5% -.61
Close race 15560 59.7% 89.2% -.19
DK; pro-con; depends; etc. 2812 10.8% 100% 2.81

Variable Comparisons


Gender (I-GENDER)

Male Female TOTAL
NA; no Pre IW; respondent replies DK who will win (1952-1976); respondent's prediction NA 2.2%
253
1.9%
279
2.0%
532
Will win by quite a bit 30.1%
3458
24.8%
3590
27.2%
7048
Close race 59.9%
6881
60.0%
8679
60.0%
15560
DK; pro-con; depends; etc. 7.7%
889
13.3%
1923
10.8%
2812
TOTAL 100.0%
11481
100.0%
14471

25952


Race (I-RACE)

White Black Asian Native American Hispanic Other TOTAL
NA; no Pre IW; respondent replies DK who will win (1952-1976); respondent's prediction NA 2.1%
448
2.1%
61
2.4%
5
0.6%
3
1.4%
12
1.9%
1
2.1%
530
Will win by quite a bit 27.3%
5822
26.1%
746
25.5%
54
27.8%
145
28.9%
245
24.5%
13
27.2%
7025
Close race 59.9%
12787
57.3%
1639
67.9%
144
65.8%
343
62.9%
533
50.9%
27
59.9%
15473
DK; pro-con; depends; etc. 10.7%
2278
14.5%
415
4.2%
9
5.8%
30
6.7%
57
22.6%
12
10.8%
2801
TOTAL 100.0%
21335
100.0%
2861
100.0%
212
100.0%
521
100.0%
847
100.0%
53

25829


Age (I-AGE)

17-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older TOTAL
NA; no Pre IW; respondent replies DK who will win (1952-1976); respondent's prediction NA 1.2%
30
1.7%
99
2.2%
117
2.5%
105
2.0%
73
2.4%
104
2.0%
528
Will win by quite a bit 28.6%
715
28.2%
1598
28.0%
1510
27.6%
1182
27.3%
978
23.5%
1034
27.2%
7017
Close race 62.4%
1562
61.4%
3481
61.0%
3286
59.5%
2547
58.2%
2087
57.8%
2540
60.0%
15503
DK; pro-con; depends; etc. 7.8%
196
8.7%
496
8.8%
474
10.4%
445
12.5%
450
16.4%
719
10.8%
2780
TOTAL 100.0%
2503
100.0%
5674
100.0%
5387
100.0%
4279
100.0%
3588
100.0%
4397

25828


Education (I-EDUC)

Grade school or less (0-8 grades) High school (12 grades or fewer) Some college (13 grades or more but no degree) College or advanced degree TOTAL
NA; no Pre IW; respondent replies DK who will win (1952-1976); respondent's prediction NA 3.1%
132
1.8%
221
1.8%
90
1.9%
86
2.1%
529
Will win by quite a bit 25.2%
1086
27.8%
3334
27.6%
1386
27.2%
1206
27.2%
7012
Close race 47.9%
2060
59.7%
7170
65.6%
3300
65.8%
2915
59.9%
15445
DK; pro-con; depends; etc. 23.8%
1025
10.7%
1289
5.0%
254
5.0%
221
10.8%
2789
TOTAL 100.0%
4303
100.0%
12014
100.0%
5030
100.0%
4428

25775


Religion (I-RELIGION)

Protestant Catholic Jewish Other and none (also includes don't know preference) TOTAL
NA; no Pre IW; respondent replies DK who will win (1952-1976); respondent's prediction NA 2.1%
350
2.1%
127
2.9%
19
1.3%
30
2.0%
526
Will win by quite a bit 27.1%
4551
27.7%
1678
26.4%
170
27.0%
605
27.2%
7004
Close race 59.3%
9941
60.8%
3682
60.2%
388
62.9%
1409
60.0%
15420
DK; pro-con; depends; etc. 11.5%
1929
9.4%
571
10.5%
68
8.7%
195
10.7%
2763
TOTAL 100.0%
16771
100.0%
6058
100.0%
645
100.0%
2239

25713


Worship attendance (I-ATTEND)

Every week Almost every week (no cases in 1970) Once or twice a month A few times a year Never No religious preference (1970-1988) TOTAL
NA; no Pre IW; respondent replies DK who will win (1952-1976); respondent's prediction NA 0.9%
43
0.5%
11
0.8%
20
0.8%
35
0.7%
28
0.4%
3
0.8%
140
Will win by quite a bit 27.1%
1245
28.8%
597
28.0%
684
32.1%
1382
28.0%
1050
30.1%
223
28.9%
5181
Close race 64.2%
2953
63.1%
1307
64.3%
1570
59.8%
2571
64.7%
2423
56.9%
422
62.8%
11246
DK; pro-con; depends; etc. 7.8%
358
7.5%
156
6.9%
168
7.3%
313
6.5%
243
12.7%
94
7.4%
1332
TOTAL 100.0%
4599
100.0%
2071
100.0%
2442
100.0%
4301
100.0%
3744
100.0%
742

17899

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