Religion and Public Life Survey, 2004

Data Archive > U.S. Surveys > General Population > National > Pew Research Center > Analysis


SWING

(Percentages are weighted by WEIGHT; Total Ns reported are unweighted)

2004 Vote Preference ('Swing' variable)
  1) Bush - no chance Kerry
  2) Kerry - no chance Bush
  3) Nader - no chance Kerry or Bush
  4) Bush - lean Bush, chance Kerry
  5) Kerry - lean Kerry, chance Bush
  6) Nader - lean Nader, chance Other
  7) Other/undecided

Category Percentage Cumulative Percentage
Bush - no chance Kerry 34.2% 34.2%
Kerry - no chance Bush 37.7% 71.9%
Nader - no chance Kerry or Bush 1% 72.9%
Bush - lean Bush, chance Kerry 9.8% 82.7%
Kerry - lean Kerry, chance Bush 8.1% 90.8%
Nader - lean Nader, chance Other 1.6% 92.4%
Other/undecided 7.6% 100%
Total N = 1512

Variable Comparisons

Age (I-AGE)

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 or older TOTAL
Bush - no chance Kerry 27.1% 30.2% 35.6% 35.1% 38.5% 37.3% 34.2%
Kerry - no chance Bush 35.9% 38.3% 36.9% 36.5% 38.9% 40.0% 37.7%
Nader - no chance Kerry or Bush 2.9% 2.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1%
Bush - lean Bush, chance Kerry 12.5% 12.4% 9.7% 11.0% 8.6% 5.3% 9.9%
Kerry - lean Kerry, chance Bush 7.6% 8.8% 10.5% 7.8% 6.1% 6.0% 8.0%
Nader - lean Nader, chance Other 4.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 1.6%
Other/undecided 9.5% 6.5% 5.8% 7.2% 7.2% 10.0% 7.5%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1492


Worship attendance (I-ATTEND)

More than once a week Once a week Once or twice a month A few times a year Seldom Never TOTAL
Bush - no chance Kerry 52.6% 43.7% 30.8% 29.9% 21.8% 21.5% 34.4%
Kerry - no chance Bush 23.3% 33.4% 41.5% 40.0% 40.2% 53.5% 37.9%
Nader - no chance Kerry or Bush 1.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 1.2% 2.4% 1.0%
Bush - lean Bush, chance Kerry 6.0% 8.5% 8.8% 11.1% 16.3% 6.4% 9.7%
Kerry - lean Kerry, chance Bush 7.6% 6.9% 9.2% 9.2% 12.4% 2.9% 8.2%
Nader - lean Nader, chance Other 2.0% 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 4.3% 1.6%
Other/undecided 7.2% 6.3% 7.2% 8.3% 6.3% 9.0% 7.3%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1495


Education (I-EDUC)

Less than high school Graduated high school Some college College degree or more education TOTAL
Bush - no chance Kerry 25.4% 34.9% 35.8% 36.4% 34.3%
Kerry - no chance Bush 39.4% 36.9% 34.0% 41.1% 37.7%
Nader - no chance Kerry or Bush 0.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.1% 1.0%
Bush - lean Bush, chance Kerry 8.0% 10.1% 11.6% 8.9% 9.9%
Kerry - lean Kerry, chance Bush 8.2% 7.3% 8.3% 8.9% 8.1%
Nader - lean Nader, chance Other 0.7% 2.1% 2.1% 0.6% 1.5%
Other/undecided 17.6% 7.0% 7.0% 4.0% 7.6%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1508


Gender (I-GENDER)

Male Female TOTAL
Bush - no chance Kerry 37.0% 31.7% 34.2%
Kerry - no chance Bush 33.3% 41.8% 37.7%
Nader - no chance Kerry or Bush 1.7% 0.4% 1.0%
Bush - lean Bush, chance Kerry 10.9% 8.8% 9.8%
Kerry - lean Kerry, chance Bush 7.9% 8.2% 8.1%
Nader - lean Nader, chance Other 1.9% 1.3% 1.6%
Other/undecided 7.4% 7.8% 7.6%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0%
1512


Political party (I-PARTYID)

Republican Democrat Independent TOTAL
Bush - no chance Kerry 77.7% 3.9% 26.4% 35.2%
Kerry - no chance Bush 3.2% 77.0% 32.3% 39.3%
Nader - no chance Kerry or Bush 0.3% 0.8% 2.5% 1.1%
Bush - lean Bush, chance Kerry 13.6% 2.5% 13.2% 9.3%
Kerry - lean Kerry, chance Bush 2.0% 11.6% 10.7% 8.1%
Nader - lean Nader, chance Other 0.5% 0.4% 4.3% 1.6%
Other/undecided 2.7% 3.8% 10.6% 5.4%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1418


Race (I-RACE)

White, not Hispanic Black, not Hispanic Hispanic or other TOTAL
Bush - no chance Kerry 40.9% 6.2% 23.4% 34.4%
Kerry - no chance Bush 32.0% 64.1% 47.2% 37.9%
Nader - no chance Kerry or Bush 0.9% 0.0% 2.3% 1.1%
Bush - lean Bush, chance Kerry 11.1% 1.1% 9.4% 9.8%
Kerry - lean Kerry, chance Bush 7.4% 10.6% 9.9% 8.2%
Nader - lean Nader, chance Other 1.2% 1.7% 1.8% 1.3%
Other/undecided 6.4% 16.2% 6.0% 7.4%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1494



Bookmark and Share