Religion and Public Life Survey, 2004

Data Archive > U.S. Surveys > General Population > National > Pew Research Center > Analysis


WINELECT

(Percentages are weighted by WEIGHT; Total Ns reported are unweighted)

Regardless of who you might support, who do you think is most likely to win the coming presidential election: George W. Bush or John Kerry?
  1) George W. Bush
  2) John Kerry
  3) Other/Can't say
  9) Don't know/Refused

Category Percentage Cumulative Percentage
George W. Bush 43.7% 43.7%
John Kerry 36.9% 80.6%
Other/Can't say 0% 80.6%
Don't know/Refused 19.4% 100%
Total N = 1512

Variable Comparisons

Age (I-AGE)

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 or older TOTAL
George W. Bush 41.2% 48.4% 44.3% 45.0% 45.8% 37.1% 43.8%
John Kerry 42.6% 38.6% 40.6% 36.1% 35.8% 28.9% 37.1%
Other/Can't say 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Don't know/Refused 16.2% 13.0% 15.1% 18.8% 18.4% 34.0% 19.2%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1492


Worship attendance (I-ATTEND)

More than once a week Once a week Once or twice a month A few times a year Seldom Never TOTAL
George W. Bush 57.9% 48.5% 40.8% 40.7% 37.1% 33.3% 43.7%
John Kerry 24.4% 32.7% 45.5% 39.5% 37.1% 47.7% 37.2%
Other/Can't say 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Don't know/Refused 17.7% 18.8% 13.7% 19.8% 25.7% 18.9% 19.1%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1495


Education (I-EDUC)

Less than high school Graduated high school Some college College degree or more education TOTAL
George W. Bush 31.4% 46.8% 45.0% 44.2% 43.7%
John Kerry 41.4% 34.8% 39.1% 35.5% 36.9%
Other/Can't say 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Don't know/Refused 27.2% 18.4% 15.8% 20.3% 19.4%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1508


Gender (I-GENDER)

Male Female TOTAL
George W. Bush 47.5% 40.2% 43.7%
John Kerry 35.6% 38.1% 36.9%
Other/Can't say 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Don't know/Refused 16.9% 21.7% 19.4%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0%
1512


Political party (I-PARTYID)

Republican Democrat Independent TOTAL
George W. Bush 73.7% 17.4% 44.9% 44.3%
John Kerry 10.2% 64.4% 35.6% 37.8%
Other/Can't say 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Don't know/Refused 16.1% 18.3% 19.5% 17.9%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1418


Race (I-RACE)

White, not Hispanic Black, not Hispanic Hispanic or other TOTAL
George W. Bush 48.6% 23.6% 34.8% 43.8%
John Kerry 30.8% 59.6% 51.0% 37.1%
Other/Can't say 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Don't know/Refused 20.6% 16.9% 14.2% 19.2%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
1494



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