American National Election Studies, Time Series Study, 2008

Data Archive > U.S. Surveys > General Population > National > National Election Studies > Analysis


V083074

IF R THINKS MAJOR PARTY PRES CANDIDATE WILL WIN ELECTION/IF R THINKS OTHER PRES CAND WILL WIN ELECTION OR DOESN'T KNOW WHO WILL WIN: Do you think the Presidential race will be close or will [-NAME-/one candidate] win by quite a bit?
  -9) Refused
  -8) Don't know
  -1) INAP, -9 in V083073
  1) Will be close
  5) Win by quite a bit

Category Frequency Percentage Cumulative Percentage Z-Score
Refused 4 .2% .2% -5.04
Don't know 34 1.5% 1.6% -4.58
INAP, -9 in V083073 14 .6% 2.2% -1.31
Will be close 1715 73.8% 76.1% -.37
Win by quite a bit 556 23.9% 100% 1.5

Variable Comparisons


Gender (I-GENDER)

Male Female TOTAL
Refused 0.3%
3
0.1%
1
0.2%
4
Don't know 1.1%
11
1.7%
23
1.5%
34
INAP, -9 in V083073 0.5%
5
0.7%
9
0.6%
14
Will be close 74.1%
740
73.6%
975
73.8%
1715
Win by quite a bit 24.0%
240
23.9%
316
23.9%
556
TOTAL 100.0%
999
100.0%
1324

2323


Race (I-RACE)

White Black/African-American Other race Mixed race TOTAL
Refused 0.1%
2
0.3%
2
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.2%
4
Don't know 1.2%
17
1.9%
11
1.9%
5
4.2%
1
1.5%
34
INAP, -9 in V083073 0.5%
7
0.7%
4
0.8%
2
0.0%
0
0.6%
13
Will be close 77.9%
1124
67.6%
394
66.0%
173
79.2%
19
74.0%
1710
Win by quite a bit 20.2%
292
29.5%
172
31.3%
82
16.7%
4
23.8%
550
TOTAL 100.0%
1442
100.0%
583
100.0%
262
100.0%
24

2311


Age (I-AGE)

17 to 29 years old 30 to 44 years old 45 to 59 years old 60 to 74 years old 75 years and older TOTAL
Refused 0.0%
0
0.2%
1
0.3%
2
0.3%
1
0.0%
0
0.2%
4
Don't know 0.5%
2
0.8%
5
2.3%
16
1.3%
5
3.5%
6
1.5%
34
INAP, -9 in V083073 0.5%
2
0.6%
4
0.7%
5
0.3%
1
0.6%
1
0.6%
13
Will be close 69.3%
296
76.2%
475
72.3%
501
76.4%
294
77.5%
134
73.9%
1700
Win by quite a bit 29.7%
127
22.2%
138
24.4%
169
21.8%
84
18.5%
32
23.9%
550
TOTAL 100.0%
427
100.0%
623
100.0%
693
100.0%
385
100.0%
173

2301


Region (I-REGION)

Northeast Midwest South West TOTAL
Refused 0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.3%
3
0.2%
1
0.2%
4
Don't know 2.4%
6
1.0%
4
1.5%
16
1.4%
8
1.5%
34
INAP, -9 in V083073 0.4%
1
0.5%
2
0.7%
8
0.5%
3
0.6%
14
Will be close 78.3%
199
73.6%
292
72.9%
801
73.8%
423
73.8%
1715
Win by quite a bit 18.9%
48
24.9%
99
24.7%
271
24.1%
138
23.9%
556
TOTAL 100.0%
254
100.0%
397
100.0%
1099
100.0%
573

2323


Political ideology (I-POLITICS)

Haven't thought much Liberal Moderate; middle of the road Conservative TOTAL
Refused 0.2%
1
0.2%
1
0.2%
1
0.2%
1
0.2%
4
Don't know 2.4%
12
0.4%
2
2.0%
10
0.9%
6
1.4%
30
INAP, -9 in V083073 0.4%
2
0.7%
3
0.6%
3
0.2%
1
0.4%
9
Will be close 65.9%
331
72.6%
332
77.9%
387
78.2%
495
74.0%
1545
Win by quite a bit 31.1%
156
26.0%
119
19.3%
96
20.5%
130
24.0%
501
TOTAL 100.0%
502
100.0%
457
100.0%
497
100.0%
633

2089


Religion (I-RELIGION)

Important Not important TOTAL
Refused 0.2%
3
0.2%
1
0.2%
4
Don't know 1.6%
28
0.9%
5
1.4%
33
INAP, -9 in V083073 0.5%
8
0.5%
3
0.5%
11
Will be close 73.9%
1288
74.5%
421
74.0%
1709
Win by quite a bit 23.9%
417
23.9%
135
23.9%
552
TOTAL 100.0%
1744
100.0%
565

2309

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